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World Cup 2022:
How Teams Can Advance to the Round of 16
The 2022 World Cup is finally here. This year’s tournament is a little more open than usual, our chief soccer correspondent writes, with the major European powers that have dominated for two decades threatened by Brazilian and Argentine revivals.

In the tournament’s opening matches, known as the group stage, each team plays the other three teams in its group, earning three points for a win and one point for a draw. The two teams with the most points in each group advance to the knockout stage. The first tiebreaker at the end of group play is goal differential — the total number of goals scored in group play minus the goals allowed. The next tiebreaker is the most goals scored in group play.

Ecuador

Ecuador has quietly established itself as something of a force in South American soccer in recent years, qualifying for four of this century’s six World Cups. It sits in a great position after securing three points in its opening match against Qatar, especially as it heads into more difficult group games. Ecuador faces a tough match against the Netherlands next, but if it can manage a draw in its last game against Senegal, it may be enough to claim the second spot in Group A.

Netherlands

After missing out on the last World Cup, the Netherlands is back with a vengeance: It has a rock-solid defense helmed by Virgil van Dijk; a creative midfield orchestrated by Frenkie de Jong; and a proven goal-scorer in Memphis Depay. It has already won what was expected to be its toughest group game, by 2-0 over Senegal on Monday. The Dutch may not need much more than a draw the rest of the way to reach the knockout stage.

Qatar

Qatar, the host nation, had never qualified for a World Cup, let alone played in one. That pressure was on full display in its opening match on Sunday when it fell, 2-0, to Ecuador. Its path to the Round of 16 just got a lot more difficult — up next is Senegal, the champion of Africa, followed by the group favorite, the Netherlands. A draw against either of those two would have once been considered an outstanding result, but now it will need at least one win to have any hope of advancing.

Senegal

Senegal, the reigning champion of Africa, is without Sadio Mané — its best player and captain — because of a leg injury. His absence was felt in a 2-0 loss to the Netherlands, ranked eighth in the world. Senegal’s game against Ecuador, which won its opener, may wind up deciding second place in the group if the Dutch continue to play to form and take the top spot.

England

After reaching the 2018 World Cup semifinals and the final of last year’s European Championship, England should be a contender this year — if it can make it out of a challenging Group B first. The Three Lions are well organized, experienced and flush with stars, and they certainly looked like a contender in a demolition of Iran on Monday. To advance to the Round of 16, England may need only a draw against either the U.S. or Wales.

United States

The United States allowed a late goal via penalty kick in a 1-1 draw with Wales and now has a lot of work to do to reach the knockout stage. The failure to qualify for the 2018 tournament — after an unbroken streak stretching back to 1990 — meant that Coach Gregg Berhalter’s team had almost no World Cup experience. If the U.S. can manage a draw with England, it will be in a solid position to advance, as its last matchup against Iran should be its easiest game.

Wales

Before its 1-1 draw with the U.S., Wales waited 64 years for this moment. It had not qualified for a World Cup since 1958, but it has been on the rise for the better part of a decade, reaching the semifinals of the European Championship in 2016 and then returning to the tournament five years later. Its most difficult game will most likely be its last, against neighbor and rival England. It hopes to beat Iran convincingly, gaining some healthy goal differential, before heading into that matchup.

Iran

Iran has missed only two World Cups since falling short in 1994, establishing itself as one of Asia’s four great powers. It has never made it past the group stage, winning only two of its 15 games heading into this Cup, and was routed by England, 6-2, in its opener Monday. Its next two games should be easier, but it will almost certainly need at least a total of four points (a win and a draw) from its next two games, against Wales and the U.S., to advance.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia opened its World Cup with a huge upset, stunning the reigning South American champions Argentina, 2-1. It now sits atop Group C with three points, but qualifying for the Round of 16 could still be a challenge. Up next is Poland, followed by Mexico. Saudi Arabia may need another win to get a spot in the knockout round.

Mexico

Mexico and Poland played to a 0-0 tie, a result that would have been more disappointing to El Tri had Argentina not been stunned by Saudi Arabia, 2-1, earlier in the day. Mexico faces Argentina next. A win may feel more possible than it did 24 hours ago, but even a loss would give Mexico a chance of advancing heading into its third match, against Saudi Arabia.

Poland

An opening-match draw, combined with the stunning upset of Argentina in Group C’s other match, counts as a banner day for Poland. It faces Saudi Arabia next. A win would give Poland four points heading into its final match in group play, against Argentina. While Poland won’t take its match against Saudi Arabia lightly — it did just beat Argentina, after all — goal differential may be a crucial tiebreaker in this group. Poland will want not only to win but also to prevail by as many goals as possible.

Argentina

For the first time in a generation, Argentina went into a World Cup as the reigning South American champion — but a shocking loss to Saudi Arabia means the Argentines have no easy path to the knockout stage. On paper, its next opponents — Mexico and Poland — are both stronger than Saudi Arabia. Argentina will face Mexico next, on Saturday, in what is now possibly a must-win match.

France

France is the reigning World champion and, for all the romance attached to Brazil and Argentina, the presumptive favorite. No team has retained the World Cup since 1962, but its sheer depth of talent, even with Karim Benzema out with injury, gives France reason to believe it can end that run. Making it to the knockout stage should be a smooth path: Its hardest game should be its second match, against Denmark, while the other two may prove to be an easy three points.

Denmark

Denmark drew Tunisia, 0-0, in its opener, leaving a range of paths to the Round of 16. It plays the reigning World Cup champion, France, in its next match. A win would put Denmark in the driver’s seat. A draw would also be a welcome result but would put pressure on the Danes to win against Australia in their group finale.

Tunisia

Tunisia and Denmark tied, 0-0, leaving it with the same set of possibilities — and challenges — as the Danes. It faces Australia next. If Tunisia secures a win, it will head into a final match against France with four points, which could be enough to advance even if it loses against the reigning World Cup champions.

Australia

It’s a fifth World Cup in a row for the team that insists on calling itself the Socceroos. Australia may now be a mainstay of the World Cup, but it has not won a game at the tournament since 2010. Reaching the knockout round, given the group draw, is likely to be a step too far. A draw in its opening game against France would help.

Costa Rica

Nobody had to wait as long as Costa Rica to seal a place in Qatar — its playoff victory against New Zealand completed the field — but that does not mean it should be dismissed as a makeweight. This is a country that has reached the quarterfinals in 2014 — more recently than Spain, for example, its first group opponent. If it can manage a win or a draw against Spain, its road to the knockout gets much easier.

Spain

Spain’s fall from grace was swift and brutal. It produced certainly the most successful — and arguably the greatest — national team in the game’s history between 2008 and 2012, winning three consecutive major tournaments, including its maiden World Cup in 2010. Since then, it has been a bitter disappointment, losing in the group stage in 2014 and in the last 16 in 2018. It won’t be easy to avoid disappointment again. Spain figures to need to pick up three points in its first match against Costa Rica before facing a solid German side in its second. If it manages a win and a draw, at least, its last game against Japan could just be a breather.

Germany

Germany, like Spain, followed its World Cup win in 2014 with a scarring group-stage exit four years later. It has responded by naming a 2022 squad shot through with young talent, like Youssoufa Moukoko, the Borussia Dortmund striker who turns 18 this month. Germany opens the tournament with perhaps its easiest game, against Japan. An early three points there could clear its path out of the group stage before it faces stronger opposition in Spain and Costa Rica.

Japan

Japan has qualified for every World Cup since 1998, generally alternating between elimination in the group phase and an exit in the Round of 16. The manager, Hajime Moriyasu, has a sufficiently strong squad to see the last 16 as an achievable aim, though having to face Germany in its first game does not help. If it can manage a draw with the Germans, its next game against Costa Rica should be easier, before a meeting with group-favorite Spain.


Belgium

It would be easy to dismiss this generation of Belgium players as a disappointment; they have spent almost a decade, after all, being hailed as contenders to win a major trophy. They might not have won one, but they made the semifinals in 2018, and have spent most of the last four years ranked as the best team in the world. They enter this year’s World Cup ranked second, and in a group where no other team cracks the top 10. Belgium’s first game figures to be its easiest, against Canada, followed by another easy game against Morocco. Two early wins would be enough to send the Red Devils to the knockout round, regardless of what happens in its last and hardest group game against Croatia.

Canada

Canada’s relief and delight at qualifying for its first World Cup since 1986 should not be confused with contentment to travel to Qatar just to make up the numbers. Two players stand out from the generation that ended Canada’s wait: Alphonso Davies, probably already the finest player the country has ever produced, and the forward Jonathan David. There is no easy route out of this group, however, and Canada has its hardest game first, against Belgium. Things get only slightly easier after that.

Croatia

For Croatia, reaching the semifinals in 1998, in its World Cup debut, was remarkable enough. Getting all the way to the final in 2018 was one of the most astonishing performances in the tournament’s history. The core of the team that carried Zlatko Dalic’s team to that final remains in place, including the apparently ageless Luka Modric. Croatia will look to secure a spot in Group F with early wins against the two easier opponents, Morocco and then Canada.

Morocco

Morocco has an encouraging balance: an obdurate defense flanked by two of the world’s best fullbacks, Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui; a midfield graced by the scheming of Hakim Ziyech; and an attack spearheaded by Youssef En-Nesyri. Qualification was suitably straightforward, and expectations of reaching the Round of 16 are high. It opens the tournament with two very difficult games, however: First up is Croatia, followed by Belgium. If it can manage a point there, it might still have hope, as its last game against Canada should be its easiest.


Brazil

Brazil last won the World Cup 20 years ago, a drought the country generally regards as 19 or so years too long. This year’s squad is a fearsome one, encompassing perhaps the two best goalkeepers in the world, a miserly defense, an intelligent and industrious midfield, and a slightly absurd forward line. There is no reason Brazil cannot win its sixth crown. It has a fairly easy road to the knockout stage, with none of its opponents cracking the top 10 teams in the world.

Cameroon

Cameroon has missed out on only two World Cups since falling short in 1986, but its presence in Qatar was a close-run thing. In the second leg of its playoff against Algeria, Cameroon seemed out, right up until the 124th minute, when Karl Toko Ekambi scored the goal that changed everything. Moving beyond the group stage will be hard for Cameroon, but if it can manage good results in its early games against Switzerland and then Serbia, a loss to Brazil in its final group game may hardly matter.

Serbia

Serbia should, on paper, be a threat. Its team is drawn largely from Europe’s major leagues; Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is a reliable, creative presence; and Dusan Vlahovic, Luka Jovic and Aleksandar Mitrovic provide an embarrassment of riches in attack. And yet that is the same before every tournament, and Serbia never quite manages to deliver on its promise. If it manages a point against Brazil in its first game, however, things could be different this year.

Switzerland

With minimal fuss, Switzerland has become an admirably common feature of both World Cups and European Championships. This will be the country’s fifth straight World Cup, and Switzerland generally, and correctly, regards reaching the knockout round as a sort of par finish. It faces Cameroon first and should pick up three points before heading into its hardest group game against Brazil.

Ghana

Qualification was a little stressful for Ghana: It required three managers, a controversial penalty kick and a fraught playoff victory over Nigeria to carry the Black Stars — so close to being semifinalists in 2010, but absent entirely in 2018 — to Qatar. The extent to which the manager Otto Addo succeeds in blending together those new faces with the established figures in his squad — the likes of Thomas Partey and the Ayew brothers, Andre and Jordan — as well as an exciting crop of emerging youngsters will define how Ghana fares in what is, admittedly, a tough group. First up is Portugal; a win or a draw there could put Ghana on a path to the knockout stage.

South Korea

South Korea has now made every World Cup since 1982, even if qualification this time around was a little less smooth than normal. Three weeks ago, it confronted its nightmare: the sight of Son Heung-min, the Tottenham forward and the country’s lone superstar, being removed from a Champions League game with fractures around his left eye. Son has assured fans he will be ready to play. Without him, South Korea’s path to knockout rounds would be far harder.

Portugal

Portugal will travel to Qatar believing — though possibly not verbalizing — that it can win the tournament. Lionel Messi, after all, is not the only player with a credible claim to rarefied soccer royalty who is expected to be taking the curtain after this World Cup, and if anything Cristiano Ronaldo may have the better supporting cast. Portugal opens against the lowest-ranked team of the tournament, Ghana, and should secure three points. Things will only get harder from there.

Uruguay

For the better part of a decade, Uruguay has been South America’s third force behind Brazil and Argentina. Luis Suárez is still there. So, too, are the likes of Edínson Cavani and Diego Godín. The veterans are joined, though, by the standard-bearers of a new generation: Liverpool’s electric, unformed Darwin Núñez; Barcelona’s Ronald Araújo; and, most of all, the irrepressible Federico Valverde. Uruguay opens the tournament with what ought to be an easy game against South Korea. Its next game against Portugal will probably determine whether it advances out of the group stage.


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